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Power equipment and new energy industry: the "dual carbon" cycle begins, and new energy leads the wa

Large  Small Date:2021-12-17
     Lithium battery: Iterative technology of increasing penetration rate. Demand side: 1) my country's new energy vehicle market has changed from policy guidance to a consumption-driven model. The European market will break out in 2020, China will achieve leapfrog growth in 2021, and the United States is expected to become the new main force in 2022. The gold content of overseas customers is getting higher and higher. We estimate that in 2021/2022, the global installed capacity of power batteries will be about 307GWh (YOY+125%)/494GWh; 2) Lithium batteries for energy storage and lithium batteries for two-wheelers will begin to increase; 3) Lithium batteries for digital use will maintain an annual growth rate of 10 %above.   
    Supply side: 1) Demand blows out, prices of resources and materials are rising step by step, and the profitability of the lithium battery industry is under pressure. This round of price increases is mainly absorbed by battery companies themselves. The high boom will accelerate the expansion of production, and the pressure on the supply chain will be released to some extent. It is expected that the performance of leading battery companies will improve marginally in 2022. Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc. are recommended; 2) Two main lines are recommended in the material link: To expand new customers overseas, recommend Dangsheng Technology, Zhongwei, Xinzhoubang, Kedali, etc.; tight supply and demand have strong bargaining power, Recommend Enjie, Putailai, Shanshan, Jiayuan Technology, etc.   
   New energy power generation: the game between price and capacity. The dual-carbon target provides long-term deterministic guidance for renewable energy, and the clean-up rate on the power generation side will continue to increase steadily. The new energy power generation end that has fully entered the era of parity will stimulate more spontaneous market-driven demand. (1) Photovoltaics: We expect 40-50GW of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2021, and high growth in 2022 is highly certain. It is recommended to grasp the three main lines "inverter, integration, auxiliary materials", and recommend Sungrow, Jinlang Technology, Longi, JA Technology, Foster, CITIC Bo, etc. (2) Wind power: Land breeze opens up room for growth, and the era of sea breeze parity is about to come. Core targets: Mingyang Intelligent, Goldwind Technology, Sinoma Technology, Tianshun Wind Power, Dongfang Cable, Daikin Heavy Industry.   
  Power grid: coordinated interaction between source, grid and load. New energy is ushering in great development, and the power grid is committed to creating a new power system with integration of "source, grid, load and storage" and multi-energy complementarity with new energy as the mainstay. The proportion of distribution network investment in total power grid investment is expected to increase. Liangxin Electric, Chint Electric, Honglida, etc. are recommended. UHV will increase long-distance transmission capacity. It is estimated that the total UHV investment will reach 300 billion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Guodian NARI, Xu Ji Electric, TBEA, etc. are recommended. The digital transformation of the power grid is the general trend, and Guodian NARI, State Grid Xintong, Linyang Energy, etc. are recommended.   
  Energy storage: a key part of the energy transition. In order to ensure the safe operation of the power grid and reliable power supply, it is urgent to develop energy storage to improve the system's flexible adjustment capabilities. Multi-scenario applications of electrochemistry work together: the power generation side depends on the ratio of new energy sources; the grid side is closely related to the peak load; the user side is greatly affected by the peak-to-valley price difference. We predict that my country’s installed electrochemical energy storage capacity will reach 44.2GW in 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 68.4% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and an increase of more than 10 times in 5 years. Recommend CATL, Sungrow, Paineng, etc.
 
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