2019 H2 Chinese Ternary Material Differentiation Small Y-On-Y
Chinese ternary material output M-To-M down 30.96%, Y-On-Y up 4.41% in June due to subsidy decline. Chinese ternary material output rebounded since July. According to ICCSINO, Chinese ternary output will reach 15000MT in Dec, Y-On-Y up 4.6%. 2019 H2 Chinese ternary material trend will be synchronous compared with 2018.
2019 Chinese Installed Power Ternary Weakening Y-On-Y
According to ICCSINO, EV sales changes lag behind battery output changes for 1 month. Thus July Chinese installed power ternary M-To-M down 54.71%, Y-On-Y down 17.58% in July. It’d predicted that Dec Chinese installed power ternary will be 4.5GWH, M-To-M up 12.50%, Y-On-Y down 32.70%. 2019 H2 Chinese installed power ternary market was more weakening Y-On-Y. Speeding up installed power ternary output phenomenon still exist in 2019 due to subsidy policy.
Conclusion: 2019 Chinese EV Sales Y-On-Y down 4%.
According to ICCSINO, 2019 Chinese EV sales will be 1.242 million, Y-On-Y down 4%. This number is much lower than our expectation (1.5 million). 2019 Chinese EV industry growth is in stagnation. With Tesla localization in Shanghai, 2020 Chinese EV targeted sales ( 2 million) is difficult to realize. It’s predicted that supporting policy will be made to boost Chinese EV market.
