Supply Side
Overall industry output remains high at present with ample circulating supply. Leading concentrators maintain stable production and smooth delivery of regular orders. Medium and small processors schedule production according to orders and have not cut operating rates voluntarily. Inventory divergence remains prominent: slow destocking continues for medium and small flake grades -193 and -194. The inventory backlog for large flake -195 has not improved materially and remains the main drag on overall inventories. Small and medium-sized producers will enter seasonal shutdowns successively starting from mid-November amid cold weather.
Demand Side
Rigid purchases from downstream anode and refractory sectors stayed on track, with overall take-up volumes little changed month-on-month and no incremental demand. Downstream supporting demand for grades -193 and -194 is stable, and spherical graphite orders remain steady to back liquidity for these grades. Nevertheless, downstream buyers stay cautious, mostly purchasing on an as-needed basis with small restocking orders and showing little appetite for large advance stocking. Demand for large flake -195 from refractories and traditional industrial sectors stays soft with thin transactions, and tiered demand across different grades continues.
Price Side
Negotiation prices for mainstream flake graphite grades held steady this week without obvious rises or falls. Upstream producers see solid cost support, and shutdown expectations ahead have strengthened their willingness to hold prices. Still, downstream end-users remain cautious and keep pressing for lower prices, putting buyers and sellers in balanced contention with no window for price changes. As of October 23, Heilongjiang flake graphite prices: -193 at RMB 2,150–2,300/tonne; -194 mainstream at RMB 2,400–2,700/tonne; -195 mainstream at RMB 2,600–2,900/tonne; -190 mainstream at RMB 2,200–2,500/tonne. In Shandong, -195 is mainly quoted at RMB 2,900–3,200/tonne and -194 at RMB 2,800–3,100/tonne. Spherical graphite prices were flat as well: mainstream large spherical graphite negotiated at RMB 9,000–12,000/tonne, and small spherical graphite (6μm) around RMB 18,000/tonne.
Market Outlook
Natural graphite prices are expected to oscillate at low levels in the short run. On one hand, expectations of seasonal shutdowns in mid-November are building up, pointing to potential supply reduction which could support prices. On the other hand, bearish factors including high overall inventories and weak large-flake demand remain in place. Without meaningful demand recovery, upside is capped. The market is forecast to stay rigid-demand driven with muted trading and stable prices next week. Market attention will stay on the implementation of northern producers’ shutdowns. If the scope or duration of shutdowns exceeds expectations, negotiation prices for medium and small flake graphite may edge higher later.
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