From the operational perspective of anode manufacturers, semi-annual reports have revealed notable cash flow risks. Although anode producers keep announcing price hikes, most profits remain only on paper. Accounts receivable of leading and mid-tier players including Shanshan and Shangtai have risen sharply, with high ratios of receivables to net profit. Shangtai has a highly concentrated customer base, with over 70% of its receivables owed by CATL. Small and medium-sized anode manufacturers face elevated asset-liability ratios and continuous net outflow of operating cash flow. Downstream battery makers have extended payment terms aggressively. To secure orders, anode suppliers passively accept such credit terms, leading to rising inventory and shrinking cash holdings. Corporate cash is squeezed by both inventory stocking and outstanding receivables. Price increases can only improve gross profit margins but cannot resolve collection difficulties, which constitutes the core contradiction in the industry at present.
The upstream feedstock segment shows obvious divergence. The average price of low-sulfur petroleum coke rose to RMB 4,430 per tonne in September, with nearly half of supply relying on imports. The United States is the largest source of imports. Geopolitical factors bring volatility risks to freight and insurance premiums. However, recent news indicates downstream buyers are cutting petroleum coke purchases. Prices of Northeast China low-sulfur coke have stabilized, leaving limited room for short-term gains. The needle coke market sees sluggish trading. Oil-based producers have suspended external quotations. Hit by high raw material costs and falling demand, most coal-based needle coke manufacturers plan to halt production for one month; only a handful of leading producers and captive production lines remain operational, with both upstream and downstream sides staying on the sidelines.
For supporting raw materials: Coal tar pitch players are waiting for coal tar tender results and have postponed new order quotations. Some deep-processing plants have scheduled maintenance, pointing to expected supply contraction. Prices are projected to stay stable with minor fluctuations. Slurry oil is underpinned by high and volatile international crude oil prices, yet downstream anode and graphite electrode manufacturers are reluctant to accept high-priced feedstock and only conduct low-volume restocking, keeping the market weak.
On the downstream battery side, major battery enterprises held sufficient pre-holiday inventories and have not launched large-scale restocking. Anode manufacturers mainly fulfill previously secured orders, with limited release of new orders. Downstream buyers have strong motivation to suppress prices. Some anode firms have cut raw material procurement plans, further curbing upward momentum for upstream coke materials.
Current anode material quotations are unlikely to swing sharply. Prices under long-term agreements remain steady, while spot orders are negotiated with minor adjustments. On the upstream feedstock side, petroleum coke has limited upside, and needle coke holds firm at high levels, making trend-driven price hikes unlikely in the short run. Sustained high raw material costs coupled with cautious downstream procurement cap the room for profit recovery among anode producers. The biggest short-term risk lies not in product pricing, but in cash flow pressure stemming from mounting accounts receivable. Integrated leading enterprises boast stronger risk resilience thanks to long-term raw material supply contracts and diversified customer bases. Small and mid-sized anode manufacturers with concentrated customers and high debt ratios continue to face tight funding pressure. Going forward, key monitoring points include battery makers’ restocking pace, coal tar tender prices and changes in imported petroleum coke supply.
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