Monthly Review: Needle Coke Prices Rise in April; Supply to Decline in May

ICCSINO: The needle coke market performed well in April, with prices initially rising before stabilizing. Operating rates at needle coke refineries declined by month-end, and significant adjustments are expected in May, leading to an overall reduction in output. Persistently high raw material costs, coupled with rigid downstream demand, have strengthened producers' willingness to hold prices firm.

Price Trends

• Domestic Market:
  • Oil-based needle coke: 8,100–9,600 yuan/ton
  • Coal/oil-based uncalcined needle coke: 6,400–7,700 yuan/ton
• Import/Export Market:
  • Japanese coal-based needle coke: $930/ton
  • South Korean coal-based needle coke: $940/ton (up)
  • Japanese oil-based needle coke: $1,100–1,300/ton
  • UK calcined coke: $925–1,125/ton
  • Anode-grade coke: $760–860/ton (stable)

Raw Material Dynamics

• Coal Tar Pitch: Prices stabilized before declining slightly by month-end. Medium-temperature pitch closed at 4,850–5,400 yuan/ton, while modified pitch ranged from 4,700–5,500 yuan/ton. Weakening coal tar oil prices provided insufficient support, but steady downstream procurement kept operating rates elevated. However, oversupply concerns suggest further price declines in May.
• Low-Sulfur Oil Slurry: Prices remained elevated amid tight supply and strong refinery demand. Crude oil volatility and limited availability are expected to sustain high costs, maintaining pressure on oil-based needle coke producers.

Downstream Demand

• Graphite Electrodes: Operating rates stayed low, with prices pushed higher by rising raw material costs. Procurement remained focused on meeting rigid demand, with limited upside potential in the near term.
• Anode Materials: Production continued to ramp up, supported by robust May cell manufacturing schedules. While cautious procurement persisted due to existing raw material inventories, gradual depletion is expected to revive buying interest by late May.

Outlook

The needle coke market performed robustly in April, with producers fulfilling orders amid tightening supply. With output set to decline in May and raw material costs remaining elevated, prices are projected to stabilize or edge higher.

Key Takeaways:

• Supply: May output to drop due to refinery adjustments.
• Demand: Downstream sectors maintain cautious optimism.
• Prices: Steady-to-firm trend anticipated amid cost pressures.