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Monthly review: Coal imports in the second quarter are expected to decrease by 15%-30%

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ICCSINO News: The needle coke market has maintained a steady upward trend this month. Although coke prices have put a certain pressure on the current anode and electrode business operations, the enthusiasm for purchasing is weakened, but it is a phased one. Driven by a rational view of the terminal market and unabated demand, the price of needle coke will remain in a small and long-term stable state. By the end of March, the domestic coal-based needle coke is at 8,500-9,500 RMB/ton, the oil-based needle coke is at 8,500-10,000 RMB/ton, the price of joint coke is 11,000 RMB/ton, and the price of green coke is 5,500-6,500 RMB/ton. In terms of imports, coal-based needle coke is at 1,000-1300 USD/ton, oil-based needle coke is at 1,300-1,550 USD/ton, and the price of negative electrode coke is at 680-1,100 USD/ton. As for the imports, according to market news, Japan’s coal imports in the second quarter fell by 50% compared to the first quarter, and South Korea’s coal imports fell by 15% compared to the first quarter. Due to industry recovery, rising raw material costs and boosting domestic demand in Japan, needle coke from Japan’s coal-based needle coke is expected to increase by 30% in April, and the price after the increase is 1,300 USD/ton. Needle coke from South Korea is expected to increase by 30% in April. After the increase, the price is 1,300 USD/ton. 

In the downstream market, mainstream graphite electrode manufacturers currently have insufficient inventory in March, and some orders have been placed in the middle and end of May. It is expected that the centralized supply of graphite electrodes on the market will also be concentrated during that period. Therefore, after a significant increase in the short term, it will remain at a high level. The anode material market is booming in March, with companies in the first and second tiers producing at full capacity. At present, the bottleneck of anode manufacturers is mainly the graphitization and raw materials. The supply of graphitization capacity is insufficient, and it takes time to expand the capacity. The prices of low-sulfur coke and needle coke at the raw material end continue to rise, and the maintenance plan makes the market supply atmosphere more tense. In terms of price, anode material companies have a strong willingness to increase prices. With the tight supply, it is more confident to negotiate price increases with downstream customers. It is expected that the price of anode materials will increase in the second quarter. In the terminal market, the capacity utilization rate of domestic electric furnace steel plants continued to rise in March, and the production of steel plants in the south was relatively saturated. Some electric furnace steel plants in Hebei were affected by the shortage of scrap steel, and the current production time is only 16-18 hours. According to statistics from ICCSINO, the capacity utilization rate of electric furnace steel in 135 steel plants nationwide was 71.06% by March 25, an increase of 6.21% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 92 independent electric furnace steel plants was 71.35%, an increase of 6.18% from the previous week. There was little change in the lithium battery market in March, and market demand improved, but the supply of raw materials was under great pressure. At present, the downward transmission speed of battery cell prices is significantly slower than the rate of raw material price increases. Only digital and small power products are generally increased by 10-15%. Vehicle power batteries have basically not changed, and the cost pressure still needs to be digested by enterprises themselves.


Enterprise Monthly News:
The needle coke production of 80,000 tons/year of Weifang Fumei New Energy runs smoothly, with a monthly coke output of 5,800 tons (green coke). The production line was upgraded in March, and the production capacity was increased by 50% compared with the previous one. The needle coke calcining plant is expected to be completed in July and put into production in August. The current price of raw coke is 5800 RMB.

Baichuan Chemical's calcined needle coke is currently being supplied in batches in downstream electrode companies, and the feedback is good. This week the factory has again subdivided and priced the products. The 0-1 granularity of cooked coke is quoted 4800 RMB, 1-10 quoted 7800 yuan, and for those over 10 it’s quoted 8500 RMB.

At present, the factory of Liaoning Bolai is operating normally with two lines (120,000 + 140,000). It is planned to open the third production line (140,000 tons) on May 1st, and the total production capacity will reach 400,000 tons, ranking second in the world. The price of green needle coke is 5,200-5,500 RMB/ton, and the price of calcined needle coke is 8,300-8,500 RMB/ton.

Tangshan Dongri Energy has a coal-based needle coke project of 100,000 tons, in which the production line of 50,000 tons is currently running smoothly, with a monthly shipment of 3,000 tons (after calcining), and the drying of the other 50,000-ton production line has entered the final stage.

According to the latest news from Sinopec, the oil-based needle coke project is currently progressing smoothly. Jinling Petrochemical’s needle coke project of 150,000 tons has been completed and entered the trial production stage; Maoming Petrochemical’s 120,000 tons of calcined needle coke project is expected to be completed in May.

In order to ease the pressure on the purchase of needle coke by Fangda Carbon, Fangda Siveco plans to start the production resumption plan this month, and it is currently in the raw material preparation stage.

Driven by the current upward market conditions, the Henan Xingyu plant has resumed production this week and is expected to start supplying downstream markets in April.
 
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